And so to Wales' last game at Croke Park.

There used to be unwritten rule in international rugby - Law 23, that Ireland win in Cardiff (and Wembley) and Wales win in Dublin. On the odd occasion one of the sides ‘cheated’, but it held pretty well for about 20 years from the mid 1980s.
Then Ireland went on a wee run of wins and the law seemed to have gone the same way as the one governing crooked feeds.

But since 2007 there have been green (and red) shoots of the pattern re-emerging. Whether it is re-established is, in my opinion, largely down to how the Welsh attack plays on Saturday. Will they bother in the first half at all? Or will they wait until the final quarter to rein back any lead that Ireland have established. We have seen an immense defensive performance from Ireland this year, but very little to suggest that they could stretch a decisive lead in the first 40 minutes.

Kidney seems to have been keener on rewarding those players whose heroic defensive work kept England out, than in selecting players who will threaten the Welsh. Murphy at fullback played a great game for Leicester last Saturday, but it was in some way reminiscent of his early international career when he could not reproduce his tigers’ form on the wing for Ireland – something I always viewed as the fault of Ireland’s style rather than any fault of Murphy. Perhaps Kidney needs him as a wise old head to steady the ship when O’Gara isn’t starting, but surely O’Driscoll with 100 caps is capable of that. Even if you argue that you need to free O’Driscoll from those shackles (although why have him as captain then), D’Arcy isn’t exactly a young pup. Maybe I’m being harsh, Murphy has served Ireland well down the years, and despite the ability of many 11/14/15s to interchange, there are precious few contenders for the shirt. His defence has always worried me, although the stats tend not to support my gut reaction; In attack, he rarely displays anything other than old-school moves, and as his speed decreases, I get the feeling he’s going to need something more to get across the line in anything other than a support role.

O’Leary – I’ll nail my colours to the mast here; in my opinion Boss is the form scrumhalf in Ireland at the minute. I have never been his greatest fan, but his form this season has been one of the positives in Ulster. That said, if the Irish pack are as dominant as they should be, then O’Leary should be more than capable. The problem is that someone needs to tell the Irish (or possibly the Welsh) pack that they are to be dominant, because they haven’t looked too secure in that role in recent games.

And so to the pack - I swing between Donnacha O’Callaghan and Leo Cullen every couple of hours. I really can’t decide, so I can’t really criticise Kidney’s choice, but neither they nor Paul O’Connell have provided the aforementioned dominance to which we’d become accustomed. My real uneasiness is at prop. Hayes has his 100th cap, and what a servant to Irish rugby he has been since his first faltering steps when everyone said he would never make an international prop – but it must be time to move on, right? Move on with whom though? On the loosehead, we have youth and inexperience with Healey. He did well enough in the tight against the much-fancied Italian front row, but his selection has probably more to do with his promise in the loose. For me that promise has yet to be delivered upon. Buckley on the bench seems a choice made out of desperation. It is well documented that Ireland are short of props, but even ignoring my local bias, many would agree with me that Court is hard done by in this selection.

Now you could argue that Kidney has triumphed, in that I am arguing over so few of his selection. And I’ve got to admit, I’m impressed with him so far. There is nothing he could have done about the Paris defeat, and the victories against England and Italy were ugly, but still victories. Defence has been dominant, but we need the balance shifted just a degree or two. We cannot expect to hold the Welsh attack out for 80 minutes (or as Scotland learned 85 minutes), and so we need to get the scoreboard turning for ourselves. The key will be the centaury man himself. If Brian O’Driscoll stays fit and gets the rest of the three-quarters moving, I fancy 4 tries for the backs. Wales will not give up and will return the favour, but I’ll predict an Irish victory by 5 points and the entire Irish team to be cited for ungentlemanly conduct under Law 23.

BR