Another Six Nations is fast approaching. And as an Irishman, I find myself in the unprecedented position of not having seen my team lose in over a year. Now admittedly that year excluded a Southern Hemisphere tour, but all the same, you’d think I would be a wee bit more confident facing our traditional European foes. But, no – I don’t have a good feeling about this one. Maybe it is because, after decades of nearly having a consistently good team, I’m just not ready for that step up. Maybe it’s because during Ireland’s second Grand Slam, I witnessed so many opportunities for it all to go horribly (but in my mind, predictably) wrong.

That gut wrenching moment in the Millennium Stadium when Paddy Wallace conceded the penalty straight in front of the posts and (from where I was sitting) just fractionally outside the 22, was only the pinnacle of angst from a Six Nations campaign which at moments was hairier than Chabal in a wind-tunnel. Ireland had more than enough opportunities to blow it – and the fact that they failed to grasp those opportunities with the open arms we have associated with previous generations of Irish teams, was I feel more luck than judgment.

We often hear that winning or losing a match is down to the bounce of a ball. Well Ireland rode their luck last year and the ball bounced for them. Had a ball bounced the other way; had a player taken a bit of a heftier knock (O’Driscoll for example); had a ref interpreted a law slightly differently; or had the opposition made a different decision (say, Hook to kick a long penalty rather than Jones); last season could have ended oh so differently.

Perhaps I’m doing Kidney a disservice – perhaps he has turned around the nearly-men, got rid of the ‘plucky-loser’ mindset. We didn’t see a huge change in personnel from the O’Sullivan years, and I don’t believe that some of those old squad members suddenly developed new talent under the new regime, nor did they suddenly become fitter, but they did perform with a level of individual consistency; Add in a bit of newer blood with a belief that they could actually retain their places, and maybe lady-luck was not our Most Valuable Player after all.

Many years ago on this web site, I learned the French idiom, “With ifs, Paris would be small enough to put it in a bottle …” (in English we have a similar sentiment involving my trans-gender aunt). Last year's achievement by Ireland will be recorded in history as played five; won five. Even the bruises on the Welsh stranger whose hand I squeezed during that Stephen Jones penalty will eventually fade. Nobody will remember how close it was to played five; won two. Perversely, the speed at which last season's glory becomes nothing more than a statistic is dependent on how well Ireland play in this and future seasons.

Much as I appreciated my late father telling me of the 1948 Slam, the 2009 remake is not a story I want to be repeating to my children. Yes it was a great result, or five great results, but I’m not sure it was five great performances. We are 2009 Six Nations Champions and Grand Slam winners; but this is 2010 – there are a few more new faces in the squad – plenty of individual promise from the likes of Sexton. These players need to make sure that seven or eight years from now, commentators aren’t repeating, ‘This is the last chance of Grand Slam glory for this golden generation’. This squad has five great games in them – maybe stringing together even four and a fortunate one-point win in the 2010 competition isn’t so unrealistic.

So it seems, I’ve talked myself into a spot of uncharacteristic optimism. Come Saturday February 6, I can maybe settle down with a degree of hope and only a few pints of black anesthetic to numb that nagging doubt at the back of my head. But Italy at Croker will, I hope answer very few questions. I have a suspicion that it will be the following week when the viewing of Paris will be a lot more comfortable through a bottle. A win there and the momentum will start. Wales in Dublin is certainly not a foregone conclusion, but if the team has any pretensions at being great, then a win is required. England have been getting a terrible press in recent times and a lot of it has been deserved, but I honestly don’t think they are a bad team, beating Ireland at Twickenham is certainly not beyond them. If and by now it’s a huge IF, we are four from four going into the last game on 20th March, then Scotland is all that stands between us and glory – didn’t we say something like that in 2001?

Heart says five wins. Head says three wins, two losses.

BR