Eight years ago I was sat in the Millennium Stadium when England stuffed Wales 44-15. The manner of the victory was crushing and would have been worse for the home side had Iain Balshaw - starting a trend that continues to this day - not dropped the ball with the line at his mercy. Other than the game itself, what I remember most about it was the total confidence England fans had going into that game: we were the best team in Europe at that time, were scoring tries for fun (28 in the 2001 Championship), and would no doubt have won the Grand Slam if foot & mouth disease had not intervened.

This weekend's match is very similar to that played on the crisp day in 2001, the only difference being the form and class is reversed.

Wales are head and shoulders above England, and that was before Johnson decided to go ultra-conservative by picking the blinkered lummox Joe Worsley at seven and dropping all remnants of flair from both the team and the bench. Don't get me wrong, Worsley is a decent player, but putting such a blunt instrument up against the surgeon's scalpel Martyn Williams is akin to Liam Gallagher facing Luciano Pavarotti in an X-Factor sing-off.

The only problem Wales may have is what the psychologists like to term "performance anxiety". Their fans and players will struggle to remember a time when they came into a match against England as such overwhelming favourites and the danger is that this will affect them mentally. In the past, without this coaching team, I may have agreed with them - but not this time. Warren Gatland is a Kiwi and no nation on earth is more comfortable with being the best in the sport of Rugby Union, after all they have had that moniker for 100 years.

As a northern lad myself, I can remember the Wigan team Shaun Edwards played in (how I hated them), and I can give no better illustration of their dominance than this: from the age of 12 to 22 I never saw them lose a cup match, and during that same period I can remember precious few league losses either. Edwards's Wigan would famously smash up their changing room at the end of every season; a symbol (albeit a violent one) that whatever they had achieved that year was over and it was time to win all over again. They usually did. Rest assured Wales fans, he has brought that same attitude to his latest role.

There are no redeeming factors to cling to as an England fan approaching this game. Our once-famous front five looks weak, with Andy Sheridan seemingly having forgotten how to scrummage; the back row is slow and gives away too many penalties; the defensive weakness in the 10-12 channel is red rag for the raging bull Jamie Roberts; and the Welsh kicking game means our often ponderous back three will be in serious trouble. Wales also have the oh-so-terrible scenario of waiting to see if Henson and Ryan Jones are fit, otherwise they will have to stick with the team that mullered Scotland last week. Such problems!

As an England fan myself, I will actually find it hard to take anything but limited joy from a scratchy 12-7 victory, should we miraculously achieve something like it, as it will simply tissue paper over the yawning chasms in the England game. We need to admit and accept that this is a long-term recovery project and treat it as such.

It's a great shame Bill Frindall passed away the other week, we may need him to monitor what I predict will be a cricket score.

Lee Calvert is editor of bloodandmud.com